Tag: Bevölkerungswachstum

  • Strong property market in Aargau shows high prices and low vacancy rates

    Strong property market in Aargau shows high prices and low vacancy rates

    The latest property barometer from Aargauische Kantonalbank(AKB) attests to the “strong momentum” of the Aargau property market. The canton’s strong appeal as a place to live is reflected in “continued above-average increases in property values”, write the AKB experts in the barometer. Specifically, they noted a 4.6 per cent year-on-year increase in residential property prices.

    Among the individual regions of Aargau, Aarau/Seetal stands out with a 5.1 per cent increase in house prices and Rheinfelden/Fricktal with a 6.1 per cent increase in the price of owner-occupied flats. According to the experts’ research, in the majority of the canton’s 230 municipalities, more than CHF 1 million must be paid for a detached single-family home with a neighbouring plot. Prices are even higher in the catchment markets of the surrounding major centres.

    The AKB experts have recorded a 4.7 per cent year-on-year increase in asking rents. The average rent for a modern 4.5-room flat is therefore around CHF 2,200 to 2,300 excluding ancillary costs. The vacancy rate across the canton is currently 1.3 per cent.

    The property experts at Kantonalbank expect prices for residential property and asking rents to continue to rise in the future. They are basing this forecast on continued strong population growth coupled with a continuing stagnation in construction activity. They also expect further reductions in key interest rates, which will have a positive effect on the return on property investments compared to comparable investments such as government bonds.

  • Prices for property in Bern remain on an upward trend

    Prices for property in Bern remain on an upward trend

    “Living in the canton of Bern remains expensive” is the headline of the Berner Kantonalbank(BEKB)’ s latest property barometer. It is compiled every six months by BEKB in collaboration with the Zurich-based property service provider IAZI. According to the autumn 2024 edition, prices for flats and houses in the canton of Bern have risen by 3.3% year-on-year.

    Asking rents are also on an upward trend. The experts at BEKB and IAZI point to strong population growth in the canton coupled with low new construction activity as the background to rising rents and prices on the housing market. “The unemployment rate in the canton remains at a historically low level and the number of job vacancies is steadily increasing,” the press release also states. As long as this remains the case, the housing market is not expected to ease.

    Within the individual regions of the canton, experts have observed a normalisation of price dynamics in tourist regions. Prices in the Oberland regions and especially Obersimmental-Saanen have been strongly driven by the second-home market in recent years. A stabilisation was registered here at the end of the third quarter of 2024. In Oberaargau, on the other hand, prices rose by an average of 3.9 per cent year-on-year. The experts attribute this to a shift in demand for residential property to regions with comparatively moderate price levels.

  • Swiss birth rate at historic low

    Swiss birth rate at historic low

    The Federal Statistical Office has published the figures on natural population movements in Switzerland for 2023. The number of births reached a historic low. Between 2021 and 2023, the number of live births fell by more than 10 % to 80,024 births. Natural population growth amounted to just 8,200 people, around half the average of the last ten years. The total fertility rate reached 1.33 – an unprecedented figure in Switzerland.

    Birth trends: detailed analysis
    The decline affects both children of Swiss and foreign nationality. The births of Swiss children fell by 8 %, while the births of children of foreign nationality fell by 5 %. The number of third children fell particularly sharply (over 11%). The decline mainly affects younger mothers: the drop was over 30% for teenagers and women under 25, while women over 45 gave birth to more children.

    Causes of the decline in the birth rate
    The causes of the decline in the birth rate in Switzerland are multi-layered and complex. One major factor is individualisation and the associated changes in lifestyles. More and more people are turning away from traditional family models and looking for meaning and fulfilment outside of parenthood.

    Economic costs also play a significant role. High housing costs, childcare expenses and opportunity costs resulting from loss of income are a burden for many families. These financial burdens make it difficult for many couples to decide in favour of having children.

    Another important aspect is the housing crisis. The shortage of affordable housing makes it difficult for young families to find suitable accommodation, which is an additional obstacle to starting a family.

    Geopolitical uncertainties and so-called eco-anxiety are also contributing to the decline in birth rates. Many people are worried about the future and have ecological concerns that negatively influence their decision to have children.

    Finally, family policy also plays a role. In an international comparison, Switzerland offers less generous family support. Other countries, such as France, support families more strongly and thus also promote the birth rate.

    A decline in the birth rate has a significant impact
    The decline in the birth rate could have a significant impact on various areas. One area particularly affected is the labour market. The existing labour shortage could become even more acute, making Switzerland more dependent on immigration to meet the demand for labour.

    The social security system could also suffer from the decline in the birth rate. Rising life expectancy coupled with falling birth rates could lead to considerable imbalances in the social security systems. This could jeopardise the financial stability of pension and healthcare systems in the long term.

    The property market would also be affected. Demand for smaller homes could increase, while large, remote houses could become less attractive. This would lead to a shift in demand, with centrally located and easily accessible small flats being favoured. At the same time, the need for public infrastructure, such as schools, could decrease, while the demand for childcare facilities may increase to better support the needs of working parents.

    Rebound in births in 2024?
    The initial figures on births in 2024 do not suggest a change in trend. Between January and April 2024, 24,300 babies were born, a stable figure compared to 2023. It is likely that birth rates will stabilise at this low level.

    The decline in the birth rate in Switzerland is a complex phenomenon with far-reaching consequences. Comprehensive measures and forward-looking planning are required to meet the challenges. This affects not only the economy, but also social cohesion and the organisation of our living spaces.

  • Growth 2050″ project of the Canton of Zurich

    Growth 2050″ project of the Canton of Zurich

    In view of the forecasts predicting growth of 450,000 people in the canton of Zurich by 2050, the canton’s high level of attractiveness and quality of location are obvious. The coming years will be characterised by the challenge of shaping and sensibly managing growth, which is why this is a focus of government policy for 2023-2027. The “Growth 2050” project is being coordinated by the Department of Construction and aims to identify the strategic challenges and develop a consolidated cantonal objective. All policy areas are affected, which is why interdisciplinary cooperation is planned at cross-directorate level as well as with municipalities, regions and other stakeholders. The project report and implementation agenda should be available by spring 2027 to ensure sustainable planning and implementation.

  • Site development – strategies for a vibrant city

    Site development – strategies for a vibrant city

    The city of Zurich is undergoing constant change, characterised by rising population growth and increasing demand for residential and commercial space. Balanced urban development that takes into account the needs of residents and incorporates ecological and social aspects is crucial. The Office for Urban Development plays an important role in the planning and realisation of this development. By coordinating public and private interests and developing urban development projects, the Office helps to ensure that Zurich remains a vibrant and attractive city. In doing so, the architectural heritage is preserved and space is created for forward-looking construction projects. The municipal structure plan is a key instrument for the long-term development of the city. This defines strategic goals and measures for sustainable area development and serves as a guideline for the coordination of various interests and stakeholders. In view of the projected population growth up to 2040, targeted planning and densification of existing areas is essential. The municipal structure plan defines areas that are suitable for building densification, as well as areas for public open spaces, municipal buildings and facilities. The focus here is on creating a liveable environment that meets the needs of residents and enables sustainable urban development. Overall, site development and spatial planning in Zurich is a complex challenge that requires close co-operation between various stakeholders. The Office for Urban Development is committed to a balanced and future-orientated development of the city that preserves its identity and meets the need for living, working and recreational space.

  • The property sector in Switzerland: challenges and opportunities in the age of the 10 million population

    The property sector in Switzerland: challenges and opportunities in the age of the 10 million population

    Switzerland’s permanent resident population is expected to pass the 9 million mark in the first half of 2024 and could reach the magical 10 million mark by the mid-2030s. This rapid increase is historically unprecedented and is mainly driven by international migration, while construction activity cannot keep pace.

    Since the rise from Switzerland’s 5 million in 1955, more housing has been created and transport infrastructure has been massively expanded, helping to keep rents rising only moderately in relation to wages. However, this era of falling housing costs, greater consumption of space per person and more comfortable living seems to be over. Due to the decline in construction activity, there could be a shortfall of at least 150,000 flats by 2034 in order to keep space consumption stable.

    This is likely to result in rents rising faster than incomes. Rents on offer could rise by a total of 25 to 30 per cent in real terms by the mid-2030s, similar to the situation between 2002 and 2012. Rents in central locations in particular will rise even more sharply than in the periphery due to high immigration.

    Residential property prices, whether for owner-occupied homes or multi-family houses, are also expected to rise faster than incomes at moderate interest rates. Prime locations will continue to be in high demand due to growth, and the agglomerations around the major centres will also gain in importance, which will increase the willingness to pay in these areas. Residential property could therefore build on or even exceed past increases in value.

    However, there are also risks. If the housing situation deteriorates for many households, politicians could introduce additional regulations, which would exacerbate the situation. In such a scenario, construction activity could decline further and the building fabric and sustainability could suffer, as there are no incentives for comprehensive and energy-efficient renovations. The future of the property sector in Switzerland therefore depends on a balanced political and economic development.

  • “A big city with small-town charm”

    “A big city with small-town charm”

    Where do you currently see the biggest challenges for the city?
    Winterthur is experiencing strong growth. This brings opportunities, but also challenges. More and more people want to move to Winterthur. This requires a greater number of available jobs, because short commutes mean quality of life. In addition, we have to provide more transport and educational infrastructure. This entails costs – even if we generate more tax revenue due to the growing number of residents. Nevertheless, larger investments are necessary to absorb the growth. With “Winterthur 2040” we have defined where densification is to take place. We expect around 135,000 residents by 2040.


    You have already mentioned it: the city of Winterthur currently has over 120,000 inhabitants. Last year you recorded the strongest population growth in decades. Why is that?

    Winterthur is simply a great city! We are excellently located. We offer a lot of green spaces, a high quality of life and a wide range of cultural activities. Our educational institutions also attract young people in particular. This brings well-trained professionals to the regional labour market. Of course, we also benefit from our affiliation with the Zurich economic region.
    And we are a modern technology city, which is interesting for companies. In short: Winterthur is a big city that offers everything, but still retains its small-town charm.

    How is the city’s housing market doing in view of the sharp rise in the number of inhabitants?
    Like all cities, we are struggling with a very low vacancy rate. But we still have a few municipal and some private building reserves to fall back on. The current building and zoning regulations still allow for a lot. There is a lot of building going on, as we can see from the number of building permits. Basically, we are striving for a well-mixed city. That’s why we try to offer both affordable housing and housing for higher incomes. In my opinion, however, the housing market should not be regulated by the city, it should function as independently as possible.


    You have set up the Smart City office. What does it deal with and how does it work?

    We were the first city in Switzerland to have a Smart City strategy at the city council level. The Smart City uses social and technological innovations in a targeted way to ensure quality of life, conserve resources and promote sustainable development. In other words, it is about using modern technologies to simplify everyday life for the population and to make the city well connected. For this purpose, we have founded the Smart City Winterthur office. In addition, the city of Winterthur is positioning itself as a Living Lab (WinLab), a real laboratory or test city, in which social and technological innovations for the benefit of sustainable urban development can be tried out, systematically tested and, if successful, scaled up. Partners from research and development, business and civil society are invited to actively participate.


    Sustainability is an important keyword in this context.
    True. Researchers from a wide range of disciplines agree that the city of the future must be a sustainable city. This means that the city must be designed in such a way that it can adapt to changing conditions. This concerns not only the “hardware” such as infrastructure, buildings and open spaces, but also the “software”, i.e. the social and economic structures. A sustainable city is therefore economically successful, ecologically compatible, socially stable and thus: resilient. The sustainable Winterthur should therefore also be an ecological city, in the sense of quality of life for its inhabitants. This includes as few emissions as possible, sufficient green spaces, open space and flexible and diverse mobility. With regard to social resilience, it is important for us to strengthen networks and address existing disadvantages.


    What has been done specifically in the area of digital transformation of the city administration and what is still planned?
    In order to be able to approach the digital transformation in a targeted and holistic manner, the city is currently developing a digitalisation strategy. This is geared to the needs of the various stakeholders and is based on the available means and resources. Our goal is to create a faster and as low-threshold contact to the population as possible. Currently, the city offers over 90 e-services that can be accessed via a central portal. We also want to make our internal work processes even more efficient. The highest priority is not only ease of use, but also data protection and data security. The greatest challenge, however, is and remains the speed at which digitalisation is advancing. It is important to keep pace here. We have not yet reached our goal, but we are well on our way.


    In 2017 you initiated the merger of the associations Winterthur Tourism and Location Promotion Winterthur Region. The result is the new organisation House of Winterthur. What is your conclusion some six years later?
    With House of Winterthur we have founded an association that allows us to conduct integrated location marketing. At the time, we were the first city to try this. We want to do marketing for the city and the region of Winterthur from a single source, so to speak, and generate a higher added value. We got off to a good start with a very broad sponsorship. The sponsorship is very broad with the canton, municipalities, companies, hotels, restaurants, cultural institutions and the city; meeting the different demands was a very big challenge. We certainly haven’t done everything optimally here. We have had a new director for a year and a half and are in the process of reorganising the board. I am still convinced of the idea, but we still have to optimise and adjust it.