immo!nvest – Die Plattform für Standorte und Immobilien

Tag: Kof

  • Investment plans weaken in 2025, record high in 2026

    Investment plans weaken in 2025, record high in 2026

    According to the latest KOF Investment Survey, Swiss companies are planning to increase their gross fixed capital formation by 2.9% in nominal terms in 2025 compared to the previous year. This means that the expected growth is not only below the historical average, but also below the forecasts of the last survey in autumn 2024. Construction investment in particular, which has been the main driver of Swiss investment activity to date, is expected to increase by 4.5%, but is showing a noticeable slowdown compared to expectations from the previous year. Equipment investment is expected to grow by 2.2% and research expenditure by 2.5%.

    In the services sector, optimism has dampened noticeably. Instead of the previously forecast growth of 4.7 percent, companies are only expecting an increase of 3.1 percent. In the construction industry, fixed asset investments are even forecast to fall by 1.1%, a significant correction compared to the previously expected stagnation. In manufacturing, on the other hand, the outlook remains largely stable, with a forecast increase of 1.4%.

    Tariff announcement weighs on investment security
    A key reason for the subdued expectations is the US tariff announcement from April 2025, which envisages a tariff rate of 31% for Swiss imports into the USA. With the help of a quasi-experimental analysis, the KOF was able to show that the announcement had a noticeable effect on investment decisions. Companies that completed their questionnaire after April 2 reported an increase in reduced investment plans. Before the announcement, around 30 percent of companies were planning to reduce their investment in equipment. After the announcement, this proportion rose to 35%, while the proportion of companies with unchanged plans fell from 40% to 36%.

    Similar patterns can be seen in construction investment, while research expenditure appears to have remained largely unaffected. Companies that were already planning expansion investments stuck to their plans. In contrast, many companies that had not previously planned any changes scaled back their plans, a clear indication of the increased uncertainty.

    Significant increase in investment uncertainty
    The certainty of investment realization also deteriorated following the customs announcement. The proportion of companies that rate their investment plans as more uncertain rose from 12% to 22%. At the same time, the proportion of those who did not notice any change in security fell from around two thirds to 56%. The proportion with an improved security assessment remained constant at around 21%.

    Focus on rationalization and climate investments
    The changed environment has influenced companies’ investment motives. Expansion investments, traditionally risky, are increasingly viewed with caution. Instead, the idea of rationalization is gaining in importance. The role of environmental and climate protection investments is also growing. While 60% of companies took corresponding measures last year, 69% intend to invest in climate protection and adaptation to extreme weather conditions over the next three years. This is despite the fact that almost a third of companies state that they are not currently directly affected by climate change. At the same time, the proportion of companies that see the transition to more climate-friendly standards as an opportunity has fallen from 42% to 39%. The proportion of those who see it as a risk, on the other hand, has risen to 28%.

    Optimistic forecasts for 2026
    The picture for 2026 is completely different. Never before since the KOF surveys began have so many companies planned to increase their investments. 28% of the companies surveyed are planning to invest more in equipment, while the figure for construction investment is as high as 29%. At the same time, the proportion of companies expecting a decline has fallen significantly to just 14%. Companies from the manufacturing and service sectors are particularly optimistic.

    Opportunities and risks at a glance
    The KOF analysis underlines the high adaptability of Swiss companies. While geopolitical risks such as US customs policy are leading to investment cuts and uncertainty in the short term, many companies are focusing on growth and climate investments in the long term.

  • Schweizer Konjunktur harzt – Verarbeitendes Gewerbe im Abschwung

    Schweizer Konjunktur harzt – Verarbeitendes Gewerbe im Abschwung

    In der Mehrzahl der befragten Wirtschaftsbereiche trübt sich die Geschäftslage im Juli ein – im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe bereits den sechsten Monat nacheinander. Dieser Wirtschaftsbereich befindet sich im Abschwung. Zum ersten Mal seit Januar 2021 kommt der Indikator für die Geschäftslage dieser Branche wieder im negativen Bereich zu liegen. Besonders deutlich ist die Abwärtstendenz bei den exportorientierten Firmen.

    Einen Dämpfer erhält auch der Dienstleistungssektor. Überdies geht der Geschäftslageindikator in den Branchen Finanz-​ und Versicherungsdienstleistungen, Baugewerbe und Projektierung etwas zurück. Eine positive Entwicklung nehmen im Juli dagegen die Konsumbereiche Detailhandel und Gastgewerbe.

    Inflationserwartungen geben nach – Bauhauptgewerbe rechnet mit sinkenden Preisen
    Der Preisauftrieb nimmt in nahezu allen Wirtschaftsbereichen weiter ab. Vergleichsweise häufig sind Preisanhebungen im Gastgewerbe und bei den wirtschaftlichen Dienstleistungen geplant. In den anderen Wirtschaftsbereichen dürfte die Dynamik bei den Preisen in der nächsten Zeit gering sein. Das Bauhauptgewerbe rechnet sogar mit eher sinkenden Preisen für seine Leistungen. Die Erwartungen der Unternehmen über die eigene Preissetzung hinaus für die Entwicklung des Konsumentenpreisindex sind geringfügig weniger hoch als bisher. Die Unternehmen erwarten nun einen Anstieg der Konsumentenpreise in den nächsten zwölf Monaten um 2.5%. Im April gingen sie von 2.6% aus. Für die Inflation in fünf Jahren liegen die Erwartungen momentan bei 2.3% nach 2.5% im April.

    Arbeitskräftemangel bleibt ein Problem, verliert aber an Schärfe
    Die Unternehmen in der Schweiz suchen zwar insgesamt weiterhin zusätzliches Personal, allerdings sind die Einstellungspläne nicht mehr ganz so expansiv wie bislang. Dementsprechend ist der Arbeitskräftemangel in den Augen der Unternehmen weiterhin ein sehr dringendes Problem, es verliert aber im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, im Baugewerbe und im Grosshandel im Vergleich zu bisher an Schärfe. Im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe und im Grosshandel sind die Sorgen über eine schwache Nachfrage derzeit drängender als die über fehlendes Personal.

  • Schweizer Konjunktur fehlen Impulse

    Schweizer Konjunktur fehlen Impulse

    Aus Branchensicht zeichnet sich im April keine einheitliche Entwicklungsrichtung des Geschäftslageindikators ab. Das Verarbeitende Gewerbe hat seine Abwärtstendenz der Vormonate vorerst gestoppt. Im Baugewerbe, im Detailhandel und bei den übrigen Dienstleistungen bekommt die Geschäftslage einen Dämpfer. Etwas stärker fällt dieser im Grosshandel aus. Wenig verändert präsentiert sich die Geschäftslage im Gastgewerbe und im Bereich Projektierung. 

    Lieferketten funktionieren meist wieder – Meldungen über fehlende Vorprodukte nehmen ab 
    Über mehrere Wirtschaftsbereiche hinweg deutet sich an, dass das Problem des Material-​ und Vorproduktemangels erheblich an Schärfe verliert. Sowohl im Baugewerbe als auch noch deutlicher im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe nehmen die Meldungen über fehlende Materialien und Vorprodukte stark ab. Die Grosshändler gehen von eher sinkenden Lieferfristen aus. 

    Die Unternehmen des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes berichten zudem von aus ihrer Sicht deutlich zu hohen Vorproduktebeständen in ihren Lagern. Nachdem die Lagerbestände gezielt aufgebaut wurden, könnte nun eine Phase folgen, in der der Zielbestand an Vorprodukten wieder nach unten angepasst wird. 

    Höhepunkt beim Preisauftrieb überschritten 
    Wie die Ergebnisse der Umfragen zeigen, planen die Unternehmen mit niedrigeren Preisanstiegen als bis anhin. In allen befragten Wirtschaftsbereichen ist der Höhepunkt der Preisanpassungen zunächst einmal überschritten. 

    Am häufigsten sind noch Preisanhebungen im Gastgewerbe geplant, allerdings weniger stark nach oben gerichtet wie in den Vorquartalen. Wesentlich für den abnehmenden Auftrieb bei den Verkaufspreisen dürfte sein, dass auch die Einkaufspreise für die Vorprodukte der Unternehmen nicht mehr so stark steigen. Die Lieferketten funktionieren meist wieder und bei den Energiepreisen, etwa beim Gas, entspannt sich die Situation derzeit. 

    Zu diesen Planungen bezüglich der eigenen Verkaufspreise passen die Erwartungen der Unternehmen hinsichtlich der allgemeinen Teuerung. Im April rechnen sie mit einer Inflation von 2.6% in den kommenden zwölf Monaten. Das ist abermals ein geringerer Anstieg als in den vergangenen Umfragen. Im Januar gingen sie noch von 2.9% und im Oktober 2022 von 3.7% Inflation in den jeweils folgenden zwölf Monaten aus. Seit Sommer 2022 werden die Unternehmen in den KOF Konjunkturumfragen regelmässig zu ihren Inflationserwartungen befragt. 

    Arbeitskräftemangel bereitet den Unternehmen weiterhin Sorgen 
    Der Personalmangel beeinträchtigt die Unternehmen nach wie vor erheblich. Zwar sind die Klagen über einen Personalmangel nicht mehr lauter geworden – Entwarnung kann aber in keinem Wirtschaftsbereich gegeben werden. Die Berichte von Knappheiten auf dem Arbeitsmarkt sind in allen Wirtschaftsbereichen im mittelfristigen Vergleich derzeit relativ weit verbreitet.

  • KOF Economic Barometer: Economic outlook slightly gloomier

    KOF Economic Barometer: Economic outlook slightly gloomier

    The KOF Economic Barometer declined by 2.8 points in April to an index level of 96.4. In the previous month, the barometer stood at 99.2 points (revised from 98.2). The majority of the indicator bundles are affected by the slowdown. In particular, the indicators for manufacturing, services, hotels and restaurants and private consumption. In contrast, the outlook for foreign business is stable and that for financial and insurance services is brightening.

    In the manufacturing sector (processing and construction), the indicators for capacity utilisation, the order situation, production and inventories are the main dampeners. In contrast, the indicators for earnings development tend to point to an easing.

    Within the manufacturing sector, the outlook for the chemical and pharmaceutical industries, textile and clothing manufacturers and the wood and paper products sector is less favourable than before. The indicator values for mechanical engineering, food and beverage producers and for the metal sector are almost stable. The trend for indicators in the electrical sector is upward.

  • Tangible assets become indispensable

    Tangible assets become indispensable

    Many are still talking about whether she’s coming – but she’s already here. The turnaround in interest rates has also reached Switzerland. The word turning sounds a bit bigger than what actually happened. It is simply a matter of a change of sign: For the first time in many years, the yields on medium- and long-term Swiss franc bonds are again nominally in positive territory. The same trend can be observed in the euro area and spreads in the peripheral countries are also widening.

    Is the real estate boom coming to an end?
     The reason for the nervousness on the interest rate markets is quickly found. Inflation is rising on both sides of the Atlantic – and now so fast that the US Federal Reserve is now clearly tightening the reins. That’s why everyone is now staring at the European Central Bank (ECB): Will it follow the USA and thus also burden the local economy with higher capital costs? And what would that mean for the Swiss National Bank (SNB)? Are we threatened with an end to the good economic environment and the long-standing real estate and material asset boom?

    Neither nor. Because the situation in Europe is fundamentally different than in the USA. First of all, real interest rates and, in some cases, nominal interest rates have been negative in the euro area and in Switzerland for years. This has never happened in the USA. Negative interest rates, such as those demanded by the ECB and the SNB for deposits for many years, are also unknown in the USA. Just like the negative interest rates for larger sight deposits that are now common here from commercial banks. Second, growth in Europe is structurally weaker than in the US. The American gross domestic product grew by 5.7% last year and even increased by 6.9% in the fourth quarter. This even puts inflation into perspective, which at 7.5% recently reached its highest level in 40 years. Employment in the USA has risen sharply and unemployment is falling. And at the same time, after two years of the pandemic, US citizens are sitting on a lot of money. All of this enables the Fed to fight inflation vigorously.

    Slow rate hikes
     The ECB, on the other hand, is stuck at low interest rates. Even if it did so to curb inflation, there’s no way it can raise rates as quickly and decisively as the Fed. Because the large amount of cheap money that they pumped into the market over the past ten years has increased the debt burden of the EU countries so massively that the central bank not only chokes off the upswing with a rise in interest rates, but also gives their own member states the air to breathe would take. Even the triple-A nation Germany is now stuck in the interest rate trap.

    As a result, the hands of the SNB are largely tied. On the one hand, the franc is stronger against the euro than it has been since January 2015. On the other hand, inflation in Switzerland is currently contained. The economic research center Kof expects consumer prices to rise by 2.0% in 2022 and by 1.3% in 2023. Rising energy costs are having less of an impact on the Swiss economy than the economic areas of the USA and the euro zone, and the strong currency generally has a price-inhibiting effect. If the SNB does not want to take the risk of an even stronger currency, it will have to wait for the ECB’s first interest rate hikes before it can move its key interest rates closer to zero.

    In other words, the monetary policy turnaround is here. But in Europe, including Switzerland, we do it in slow motion. The ECB will scale back its bond-buying programs; it doesn’t have the leeway for large rate hikes. The ECB must and will let inflation run its course for a while. The SNB is unlikely to be under pressure as inflation will remain moderate. It will proceed cautiously with regard to rate hikes.

    Tangible assets remain trumps
     In such an environment, investors are dependent on real assets, the only investments that offer them protection against inflation and prospects for returns. Investments in real estate and other tangible assets are therefore becoming indispensable, and because investment pressure is increasing, prices in the segment are also continuing to rise. What we are witnessing here is not bubble formation. Normal market forces are at work here. Anyone who fears a bubble in the USA can also relax: There, the yield levels for most asset classes – especially on the real estate markets – are structurally higher than in the euro area. This in turn acts as a buffer against rising capital costs. If the Fed is now planning to return to interest rate normality, this is no cause for concern, but rather proof of economic strength.

    We are a long way from that in Europe and in Switzerland. Instead, we must brace ourselves for a phase of persistently low real interest rates. In this environment, which penalizes holding cash and investments that pay nominal interest, equities, real estate and commodities continue to promise the greatest success. Against this background, securities of globally active real estate companies continue to show good prospects. In Switzerland, the real estate market has moved up sharply in terms of prices in recent years. From an economic perspective, however, there is little reason why prices should fall as long as negative real interest rates persist.