immo!nvest – Die Plattform für Standorte und Immobilien

Tag: Wohnraummangel

  • Real estate prices remain high

    Real estate prices remain high

    Real estate prices will remain on an upward trend in 2026. Forecasts by Zürcher Kantonalbank(ZKB) predict a price increase of 4.5 percent. The abolition of the imputed rental value will have no impact on this, nor will the baby boomers change the situation, according to a press release on the latest Immobilien aktuell study.

    On the housing market as a whole, the pressure on owners, tenants and tradespeople is growing as a result of the housing shortage and immigration. Switzerland is dependent on immigration, but the influx is “exacerbating the demand for housing in already tight markets”. One in four newcomers move to the five largest cities – one in ten to Zurich.

    The ZKB experts expect the situation to remain tight as a result of a drop in demand for rental apartments. Vacancy rates are at a record low and are having a particular impact on the relocation behavior of young adults. In 2023, 15 percent fewer people between the ages of 21 and 25 will have moved than in 2020. “Many will stay in Hotel Mama because there is no suitable living space available,” they say.

    Demographic change will not have a price-reducing effect. “Baby boomers are expected to increase the supply of single-family homes by around 14% and condominiums by 10% by 2035,” it says. “Demographic change will change the market, but will not trigger a price slump,” Ursina Kubli, Head of Real Estate Research at ZKB, is quoted as saying. Prices for second homes rose by 40 percent in 2019 and 2024, but will remain at a high level after a slight decline in 2025.

    ZKB’s forecasts are based on studies of the abolition of the imputed rental value, the supply restriction for rental apartments, a possible wave of sales by the baby boomer generation, market influences due to immigration and the changed vacation apartment market.

  • New study emphasises the importance of new replacement construction for relieving housing pressure

    New study emphasises the importance of new replacement construction for relieving housing pressure

    “Unloved but necessary replacement new builds” is the title of Raiffeisen Switzerland ‘s study “Real Estate Switzerland – 2Q 2025“. According to the study, replacement new builds create an average of four new flats for every demolished flat. “Despite criticism, there is often no alternative to replacement construction in order to combat the housing shortage without further urban sprawl, as gentler forms of densification, such as conversions and extensions, are not sufficient to maximise the use of scarce building land,” Raiffeisen Switzerland’s Chief Economist Fredy Hasenmaile is quoted as saying in a press release issued by the banking group on the study. He recommends paying “greater attention to social and ecological compatibility” in order to maintain social acceptance of new replacement construction.

    According to the authors of the study, the situation on the rental housing market remains characterised by excess demand. Falling interest rates could boost construction activity, according to the press release. “However, it is questionable whether the high construction levels of the past can be achieved again even under negative interest rates, as regulatory hurdles and the very limited availability of building land continue to dampen the potential,” says Hasenmaile.

    The study identifies an increase in demand on the owner-occupied property market as a result of falling interest rates. The banking group’s experts have also observed a rising demand for office space. This is due to employment growth and an increased office presence. “After several years of rather mixed prospects, the outlook for office properties has recently brightened noticeably,” says Hasenmaile.

  • Real estate monitoring 2025

    Real estate monitoring 2025

    The residential construction balance will be lower than expected in 2025. Replacement new builds and extensions are increasingly replacing traditional new builds on greenfield sites. Although the number of building permits rose in 2024, net additions due to demolition projects will remain limited. The canton of Zurich is particularly affected, where only 73% of new construction projects actually lead to more living space.

    At the same time, the supply rate for rental flats has fallen to a historic low of 3.7 %. Demand clearly exceeds supply in almost all regions.

    Price increases due to boom in demand
    The reduction in interest rates and the rising net wealth of households are stimulating demand for residential property, particularly in the upper price segment. Transaction prices are continuing to rise. The momentum is particularly pronounced in Central Switzerland. An increase of 3.6 % for condominiums and 3.8 % for single-family homes is forecast for 2025. Rents on offer will also rise, albeit at a more moderate rate ( 1.7 %), while existing rents are likely to fall slightly due to the lower reference interest rate.

    Office space market stable with regional impetus
    Developments in the office segment are more subdued. Following moderate employment growth of 1.1 % in 2024, demand for space is expected to slow slightly in 2025. Although construction activity rose by 51.5 % in nominal terms, this was due to a small number of major projects. Growth across the board is significantly lower.

    Asking rents rose by an average of 2.4 %, in major centres by as much as 4.4 %. In Zurich and Geneva, prime rents fell slightly, while Bern saw an increase of 5.3 %.

    Building construction Trend reversal and renovation as the key
    After six years of decline, a new phase of growth in building construction will begin in 2024, with an expected increase of just under 5 % in 2025. The renovation sector in particular is becoming a growth driver ( 7.2 %), driven by the shortage of building land, the energy transition, tax incentives and the high need for renovation.

    Investment in apartment blocks is rising significantly, while traditional single-family house construction continues to decline. Investment activity is increasingly focussing on inner-city densification, renovation of existing buildings and energy-efficient refurbishments.

    Intermediate spurt with uncertainties
    The economic environment remains volatile. The Swiss economy is expected to grow by 1.3 % in 2025, driven by consumption and construction investment. Global trade continues to suffer from geopolitical tensions and customs conflicts, which is weighing on the export industry with the exception of the pharmaceutical sector.

    Inflation remains low ( 0.3 %), the key interest rate cut to 0.25 % is supporting the economy, but could exacerbate deflationary tendencies. At the same time, the labour market is cooling. Population and household growth is slowing, which could have an impact on demand for housing in the medium term.