The latest EXPO REAL Trend Index, a survey of 579 exhibitors and visitors to the international trade fair in Munich, reveals a predominantly positive mood. 44 percent of participants describe the situation on the international real estate market as optimistic, 35 percent as neutral and only 22 percent as cautious.
“We have bottomed out and confidence is slowly returning,” says Stefan Rummel, Managing Director of Messe München. Although the interest rate environment, the weak economy and increasing regulation remain key issues, the balanced result shows that the industry is gradually returning to normality.
With approval rates of over 89 percent, the respondents make it clear that the major influencing factors remain interest rate policy, political conditions, the economy and the availability of capital.
Reducing bureaucracy as an appeal to the industry
Market participants see the greatest need for action in reducing administrative hurdles. 79% of those surveyed would like to see less bureaucracy. In second place with 64% is the desire for better capital availability, while harmonized building laws and the transformation of the real estate portfolio are mentioned much less frequently.
These results reflect the widespread frustration with approval processes and regulations, which paralyze new construction projects and energy-efficient renovations in particular. The call for more efficient procedures is thus becoming a key political concern for the real estate industry.
Residential remains the most important asset class
The trend of recent years is confirmed when it comes to the importance of asset classes. Residential leads with 75 percent approval, followed by care properties with 66 percent and data centers with 63 percent. Logistics remains in mid-table with 47%, while office, hotel and retail continue to lose attractiveness with around 10% each.
In the investor landscape, 87% of respondents believe that capital management companies and 83% of institutional investors will play a leading role. Crowdfunding and other innovative forms of financing, on the other hand, remain marginal phenomena.
Europe dominates, USA loses confidence
A look at the international markets reveals a clear shift. Europe remains the clear leader with 80% of mentions, while the USA has fallen from 66% in the previous year to just 45%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to gain in importance with 64%. Within Europe, Western Europe, the D-A-CH region and Northern Europe are the most attractive regions.
Respondents see the greatest growth potential in A locations in B cities. Where high demand meets moderate prices.
Lack of living space remains the central challenge
The issue of lack of living space remains the dominant problem area. 95% of respondents see improved financing conditions as the key lever for creating more living space, closely followed by lower construction costs at 94%.
Other key approaches are building in existing buildings (91%), the reduction of costly building standards (87%) and serial or modular construction (86%). In contrast, there is skepticism about the construction turbo announced by the federal government. Only 13 percent rate the measures as satisfactory.
Europe in dialog about affordable housing
At this year’s EXPO REAL, decision-makers and experts from politics and business will be discussing concrete solutions for affordable housing. Among the prominent guests are Mona Keijzer, Deputy Prime Minister of the Netherlands, and Eamon Ryan from the EU Commission’s Housing Advisory Board. The new German Federal Minister for Housing, Verena Hubertz, will also be attending.
The trade fair thus remains the central meeting point and mood barometer for the international real estate industry and presents a cautiously optimistic picture of an industry that is regaining its prospects in 2025.
